Karl Rove thinks Republicans might be best served nominating “a fresh face” during the party’s convention this July in Cleveland. Politico, citing an anonymous Republican source it claims is reliable on such matters, reported that “’fresh face’ is code for ‘Paul Ryan,’” adding that their Republican source now believes it’s more likely than not the Speaker of the House ultimately emerges from a contested convention as the Republican nominee.
Politico is far from alone in believing there’s a real chance that Ryan ends up being the Republican running against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders this fall. The Huffington Post reported Monday afternoon that Charles Koch has been telling friends Ryan is a “shoo-in” to get the nod it Trump falls short of the delegate number he needs in order to avoid a contested convention.
Ryan denies having interest in the role. During a Monday morning appearance on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show, he said, “I’m not that person. I’d like to think my face is somewhat fresh, but I’m not for this conversation. I think you need to run for president if you’re going to run for president, and I’m not running for president. Period, end of story.” In October, however, Ryan unequivocally said he would not be a candidate for Speaker. Weeks later, he was elected to the position.
Rove Suggests Disregarding Millions Of Republican Voters, Nominating A ‘Fresh Face’ For PresidentPolitics by CREDIT: AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite Republicans have a big problem. The party’s two leading candidates for…thinkprogress.orgPolitico’s Republican source said Ryan makes sense because he’s “the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment.” But there are two issues for Republican voters where Ryan is less conservative than Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the leading contenders for the GOP nomination who between them have already received more than 13 million votes this primary season.
The first is immigration, which a recent survey of Republican voters found to be “the animating issue” for the GOP base this year above any other. Trump and Cruz both favor deporting undocumented immigrants. That view has proved popular during the Republican primary season, though a recent poll indicates support for Trump’s border wall is weaker than it was a few months ago. But Ryan, liked failed presidential candidate Marco Rubio, has backed some form of comprehensive immigration reform. That position hasn’t been popular with Republican voters this primary season and probably wouldn’t be among base voters in the general campaign either.
The second is trade. Ryan supports the Obama administration-negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal that is currently stalled in Congress. Trump and Cruz do not, arguing it’s a bad deal for American workers. Working-class Republicans in Rust Belt states might feel betrayed if delegates coronate Ryan despite him not running during the primary, a primary during which the two Republicans who have received the most votes have made opposition to TPP-style trade centerpieces of their campaigns.
Both Trump and Cruz have warned that things might get ugly in Cleveland if Republican insiders follow through with a plan to nominate a candidate who didn’t run in the primary. Last month, Trump notoriously predicted there will be riots if he ends up being the top vote-getter but is denied the nomination. Cruz, speaking on Monday about the possibility that a “compromise candidate” emerges at the convention, said, “It ain’t gonna happen. If it did, the people would quite rightly revolt.”
Yet the GOP wouldn’t find itself in the business of “compromise candidates” in the first place if it wasn’t for the fact that both Trump and Cruz are now viewed unfavorably by a majority of the voting population. The question that will face delegates if Trump falls short of the magic number is whether it’s worth alienating a proportion of Republican base voters and risking an ugly scene in Cleveland in order to nominate a candidate that might prove more popular during the general election.