Ending a complicated four-decade-long relationship with its neighbors, the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union on Thursday night was largely driven by right-wing groups embracing anti-immigrant policies and a sharp curtailment of refugees in the country.
The move may soon mean tighter immigration policies in an effort for the country to “take back control of our borders” — a common refrain of the far-right wing United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) in response to a refugee crisis that has swelled over the past several years, as a growing number people have risked their lives to travel to the E.U. from the Middle East and Africa to flee conflict, instability, and persecution.
With 65 million people displaced globally, it seems unlikely that refugees will stop continuing to find a new home, of course. About one million refugees from Syria are spread out throughout Europe overall. But they may find themselves less welcome in Europe now that the Brexit campaign has stirred up anti-immigrant sentiment.
The U.K. Voted To Leave The European Union. What Happens Next?World by CREDIT: Mary Turner/Pool via AP The U.K. voted to leave the European Union by a vote of 51.9 percent on…thinkprogress.orgBy law, countries in the European Union are obligated to help refugees through a 1951 UN’s Refugee Convention process known as “non-refoulement,” which means that countries can’t return refugees if there’s a risk of persecution or death. Last year, the E.U. promised to help 160,000 migrants and refugees resettle across the continent.
But many country leaders have balked at the idea. Fear of refugees in the U.K. specifically boiled over after the country announced the Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Programme (VPR), which aims to grant humanitarian protection to 20,000 refugees through 2020. By the beginning of this year, the program had only accepted 1,000 Syrian refugees, or about 60 asylum applications per 100,000 people in 2015 — about four times less than the EU-wide average of 260, New Stateman reported.
Nigel Farage, the leader of the far-right wing United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), drummed up support for leaving the E.U. largely by being critical of the refugee crisis — fueling anti-immigrant fervor like posters with mostly non-white migrants and refugees and the statement “Breaking point: the EU has failed us all” and claiming that the terrorist group ISIS was putting “jihadists on European soil.”
In the week leading up to the Brexit vote, the debate took a chilling and violent turn when Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered for her support to remain in the E.U. and to welcome refugees. Cox had defended a failed bill to accept 3,000 child refugees and to improve the European response to refugees and people seeking asylum and refugee status on the continent.
Now, with a Brexit vote to leave the E.U., the immigration restrictionists have prevailed and harsher migration policies could be on the horizon, leading to consequences that may require new policies to continue dealing with migrants and refugees entering E.U. countries.
The Procrastinator’s Guide To Understanding BrexitCREDIT: AP Photo/Matt Dunham Months of furious campaigning will culminate in a significant vote on Thursday, as the…thinkprogress.orgThe non-partisan think tank Migration Policy Institute predicted that a U.K. restriction on free movement could “trigger changes” to border controls in France, like holding back refugees and migrants in Calais and access between Spain and Gibraltar. It would also affect E.U. deportation arrangements by “making it difficult for the United Kingdom to return unauthorized migrants to certain countries — at a time when irregular migration likely would increase.”
A post-Brexit immigration policy plan may have ripple effects beyond just controlling the flow of refugees, affecting other immigrants who want to enter and leave the U.K.
About 71 percent of the three million E.U. residents living in the U.K. have been there for five years or more, which means they may qualify for permanent residence. As Financial Times pointed out, the borders will likely not close — because it would otherwise break E.U. rules on free movement — but there may be new immigration rules about who can come in.
“Leave” supporters want an “Australian-style points system,” which allows in migrants based on merits like language skills, qualifications, work experience, and occupation, but also limits the number of people admitted in different professions.
Low-skilled migrants like cleaners and waiters, who make up about eight percent of the U.K. economy, may be most affected post-Brexit. That’s because the current U.K. migration policy on non-E.U. migration would not admit low-skilled workers, with about 75 percent of E.U. citizens working in the U.K. not being able to meet the current visa requirements. Even Britons living in the rest of the E.U. may not know their fate.
“Leaving the EU would mean that British citizens would lose the right to move freely, work and do business in the largest economic area, the largest market in the world,” Mariano Rajoy, Spanish prime minister, warned this month, according to FT.