U.S. coal production is expected to take a major hit through 2040. This will happen whether the court-embattled Clean Power Plan — which would reduce carbon emissions from energy plants — is implemented or not, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
A landmark of the Obama administration’s climate initiative, the Clean Power Plan (CPP) mandates a 32 percent reduction in carbon emissions from the electricity sector in the next 14 years. The rule is seen as a disincentive for coal use, which produces 33 percent of U.S. electricity but is responsible for 71 percent of power plant carbon dioxide emissions. In February, the Supreme Court put a stay on the CPP as the industry and hundreds of lawmakers said the rule is a costly overreach of authority. The administration, another long list of lawmakers, and many outside groups disagree, and an appellate court is set to hear the case in September.
According to the most recent projections released this month, coal productivity will decline by around 26 percent — or 230 million tons — with the CPP. Without it, coal production will still stagnate and remain at 2015 levels.
The country gets its coal mainly from three regions: the West, the so-called Interior — which includes states like Texas and Iowa — and Appalachia. The West and Appalachia produce low-sulfur coal associated with lower sulfur dioxide emissions, yet both regions are expected to see productivity declines with or without the rule, the EIA said. On the other hand, the Interior region may see an increase under both scenarios, because its high-sulfur coal will in part now be able to compete with other regions as power plants implement sulfur control equipment to accommodate the federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standard, a rule unrelated to the CPP. Furthermore, Appalachian coal is more expensive now that the area’s easily-accessed reserves are dry, making mining a costlier endeavor.
Environmental Policies Are Good For Business And Innovation, Study SaysClimate by CREDIT: AP Photo/Bob Leverone Environmental policies are often vilified as economical agents of destruction…thinkprogress.orgIn the West, which includes Wyoming, Colorado, and other coal-producing states, production may fall by 155 million tons through 2040 with the CPP, and by 31 million without it, according to the EIA. In Appalachia, which includes Kentucky and West Virginia, production declines 79 million tons if the CPP is upheld, and 50 million if the courts were to strike it down. In any case, a slow growth in international coal demand will add to the industry’s burden.
The coal industry has been in decline for years as electricity generation is relying on cleaner-burning — but still pollution-intensive — natural gas, and growing renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Switching to cleaner energy sources seems to be making a dent on emissions. CO2 discharges declined 15 percent between 2005 and 2014, according to a study commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council and other groups published Wednesday. However, CO2 emissions were 14 percent higher than 1990 levels in 2014.
But while electricity producers continue to reduce emissions of global warming-inducing pollutants like carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen oxides, the coal industry has suffered bankruptcies and layoffs. The West lost some 4,000 coal-related jobs since 2012, the High Country News reported last week. And from 2013 to 2014, Appalachia lost some 5,000 jobs while the Interior coal producing region lost about 300, according to EIA data.
Studies have found that the renewable energy industry could absorb those layoffs in the coming years. Last month, researchers from Michigan Technological University and Oregon State University calculated that the growing solar industry could assimilate retrained coal workers within the next 15 years.
The solar industry added jobs twelve times faster than the rest of the economy. That includes oil and gas. Based on Solar Foundation figures, the solar industry has 208,859 jobs, which already exceed the 150,000 coal mining jobs that remain in the country.
The Republican Party’s Platform Says Coal Is ‘Clean’ EnergyClimate by CREDIT: AP Photo/Jim Cole For the Republican Party, internet porn is a ” public health crisis.” Coal…thinkprogress.orgJobs and the economy are paramount political issues, and more so during an election year. Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have both catered to coal mining communities from opposing viewpoints. Trump has said he will bring mining industry back from its demise, though he is yet to offer a plan for that. “Let me tell you: the miners in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, which was so great to me last week and Ohio and all over, they’re going to start to work again, believe me,” said Trump during a May rally. “You’re going to be proud again to be miners.”
For her part, Clinton advocates using the renewable energy industry to ameliorate job losses the coal industry is facing. Her plan calls for $30 billion toward infrastructure improvements, training programs, and incentives for business investment in coal areas. “We’ve got to move away from coal and all the other fossil fuels, but I don’t want to move away from the people who did the best they could to produce the energy that we relied on,” Clinton said in March.