Negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program may be nearing a deal as talks between the United States and Iran resume in Geneva, Switzerland on Friday and are scheduled to continue into the week when Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zari meets with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday and Monday.
Yet as both sides appear to be coming together on key issues, Israeli leaders (who are not an official party to the talks) continue to raise concerns about any final deal the permanent members of the Security Council and Germany could reach with Iran. Those worries come amid new allegations from inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran is “still refusing to answer their longstanding questions about suspected work on nuclear weapons and designs,” the New York Times reported on Thursday.
At issue is Iran’s nuclear capability, which the country has long claimed it is developing for peaceful purposes, but many in the international community suspect could be used to develop a nuclear weapon. The Americans — along with negotiating partners Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany — would permit Iran to retain its nuclear infrastructure but delay the “breakout” period for developing a weapon by more than a year. Iran would also have to submit to rigorous inspections to ensure that it is not developing covert nuclear facilities.
As the Washington Post’s David Ignatius explains, the Americans and Europeans believe that this approach would “tie Iran’s hands for a decade” until a new generation of democratically elected leaders takes power and abandons the ways of the old regime. It is also preferable to the alternative: a military confrontation with Iran and Israel, the United States, or others.
Spurred by falling oil prices, economic sanctions, as well as other regional factors, the talks appear to have made what observers are characterizing as “significant” progress.
The two sides have narrowed the gap on the number of centrifuges Iran would be permitted to operate, Iran has agreed to limit its stockpile of enriched uranium and halt progress on the heavy water reactor at Arak (a facility that could be used to produce plutonium for use in nuclear weapons). However, questions about whether Iran could continue to conduct research into advanced centrifuges and the dismantling of removed centrifuge arrays appear to be outstanding. The inspectors’ latest report of Iran’s uncooperativeness also raises new questions.
For its part, Israel fears that any deal with Iran — at least as it is being outlined in the press — would accept Iranian enrichment as a new reality while only delaying Iran’s capability to weaponize by a year. An agreement would also make it politically unfeasible for Israel to take military action against Iran and only delaying Iran’s ambitions. “The temptation [for Iran to create a weapon] is not now but in two or three or four years, when the West is preoccupied with other crises,” Yuval Steinitz, Israel’s minister of intelligence, told Ignatius.
Iran and its negotiating partners must agree to broad principles on limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities no later than March 24th and reach an agreement on the technical aspects of the deal by June 30th. On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who will approve any final agreement, predicted that the world would not lift its sanctions against Iran even if a diplomatic solution were reached. “Our leader suspects that sanctions will not be lifted in one go, and if such measures continue there will clearly be no nuclear solution,” Hamid Reza Taraghi, an Iranian political analyst, told the New York Times.