President-elect Donald Trump will be inheriting a myriad of foreign policy challenges when he enters office in January — one of the biggest being world conflicts in which the United States is deeply involved.
It’s not yet clear what Trump’s approaches to these conflicts will be, but there is a sense of urgency for each one. Here are five conflicts Trump will need to figure out as Commander-in-Chief:
Afghanistan
The war in Afghanistan is the longest in U.S. history. Despite its place in the pantheon of America’s foreign transgressions, Afghanistan was a largely ignored subject during the presidential campaigns, leaving it as the “forgotten war.”
When Donald Trump takes the presidential oath in 2017, he won’t just inherit a new house but a war that has drained American taxpayer pockets of over one trillion dollars. Sixteen years after the United States invaded Afghanistan, the government there is still struggling to exhort influence over the country. International donors make up 70 percent of Afghanistan’s operating revenue, according to the LA Times. Meanwhile, the Taliban continues its resurgence and are thought to have up to 25,000 operatives and Trump’s favorite foil, ISIS, has also entered the fold with anywhere from 1,000 to 3,000 soldiers, according to the Military Times.
Obama started removing troops in 2014 and wanted to have all troops back from Afghanistan by the end of 2016, but the precocious security situation involving the Taliban’s regaining of ground caused a revision of his plans. Earlier this year, the Obama administration also began hitting Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar province with airstrikes in an effort to target an elite-ISIS cell they call the Khorasan group.
Iraq
The largest news coming out of Iraq at the moment is the battle to retake Mosul from ISIS. This fight is expected to outlast Obama’s final months in office and carry over to Trump’s reign. Trump has repeatedly called the decision to enter Iraq in the first place a disaster, and criticized the operation in Mosul for being too transparent.
Trump’s comments during a presidential debate that the operation in Mosul lacked an “element of surprise” was widely criticized by American military historians and senior leadership as lacking an understanding of Iraqi politics, military warfare, and American military history.
That aside, ISIS could be on the ropes in Iraq should Mosul fall, as is expected. Trump’s challenge then is to ensure no drastic changes occur as the battle continues that would alter the outcome and then help Iraq rebuild and develop a modicum of stability to prevent ISIS’ resurgence. The United States currently has 6,000 ground troops engaged in the operation.
“Trump’s top priority in Iraq should be working to ensure that Iraq will not fall apart after the battle of Mosul, increasingly seen as a turning point in view of the conflicting agendas and interests of national and regional stakeholders who have been active in reshaping the geopolitical environment there,” Salah Nasrawi, an Iraqi journalist, wrote in Al-Jazeera earlier this week.
In the years since dictator Saddam Hussein was deposed, the Iraqi central government took on strong sectarian overtones. The country still feels these divides that have been worsened by interference from regional rivals like Saudi Arabia and Iran. For Trump to avoid shouldering the blame of the U.S. legacy in Iraq, the United States needs to be a key player in helping Iraq rebuild national institutions that represent the multitude of Iraqi identities.
Libya
President Obama expanded airstrikes to Libya a few months ago, as ISIS’ presence in the region grew after loses in Syria and Iraq. ISIS has been faltering in Libya recently, as the Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by General Khalifa Haftar has gained ground in areas like Benghazi. But the situation in Libya is complex, with a multitude of actors on the ground competing for legitimacy.
American troops currently have a “light footprint” in Libya, where a small group of elite troops are providing intel for airstrikes near Sirte — ISIS’ base in Libya. Most of the fighting is done by Libya ground troops, according to accounts compiled by the Washington Post.
“As long as they keep this low profile … the risks both for the U.S. and for the Libyan government are quite low,” Mattia Toaldo, a Libya expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the Post.
Syria
Approaching its sixth anniversary, the Syrian civil war will haunt Obama, and the disastrous humanitarian toll could also tarnish his legacy. One day before the election, the United States began supporting an effort to retake ISIS’ Syrian capital Raqqa.
In the run up to the election, Trump’s running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN) advocated for military intervention in Syria, but Trump then contradicted him by claiming Russia is fighting ISIS in Syria (it’s not) and that the U.S. should stay out of the war there.
Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s tyrannical president whose regime is responsible for the vast majority of deaths in a war that has killed around half a million people, recently called Trump a “natural ally.”
Syria’s civil war is a convoluted mess with few easy answers. On one side is an anti-interventionist crowd who say any involvement would surely exacerbate the conflict. On the other are those who say a humanitarian intervention is necessary to protect Syrian civilians from Russian and Syrian airstrikes, with the latter group including prominent Syrian intellectuals and aid groups like the Nobel Peace Prize nominees, the White Helmets.
Yemen
The United States has been conducting drone strikes on Yemen since 2002. Operations ramped up in 2009, however, when Obama came into office and launched 230 drone strikes over the next seven years.
The United States has been supporting the Saudi-led airstrike campaign in Yemen, with human rights groups and experts claiming U.S. culpability in war crimes against the people of Yemen. U.S. involvement in a civil war that has killed 10,000 people was mostly limited to its military and operational support to Saudi Arabia. The United States agreed to sell Saudi Arabia more than $22 billion in arms since the war began.
But last month, an airstrike killed more than 100 people at a funeral in Sana’a. The Houthis allegedly retaliated (they deny culpability) by launching two missiles at a U.S. warship in the Red Sea. The missiles failed to make contact but the United States responded by destroying three radar installations in Yemen, the New York Times reported.
Trump’s military directives in Yemen could affect U.S.-Saudi relations. There is also the issue of what Iran will do, given the recent escalation in U.S. involvement in the conflict. “If the US pretext for launching missiles strikes into Yemen was on the grounds that it was an act of self-defense, could that provide a justification for Iran to do the same?” CNN asked last month.