Another major holiday has passed and despite warnings of potential terror attacks dominating headlines nothing came to fruition.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re sitting here a week from today talking about an attack over the weekend in the United States,” Former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell told CBS on June 29. “That’s how serious this is.”
Yet when Americans woke up on July 5, the only deaths reported came from gun-related violence or horseplay with fireworks. The initial warnings had come from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and grabbed the nation’s attention for a number of reasons, according to security analysts. Reasons included the recent ISIS attacks in Kuwait and Tunisia that killed scores of people, the rising threat of lone wolf attacks either by radical Islamists or right wing radicals, and, most significantly in this case, a few slow news days.
Terror Warnings And Fear
“These warnings are an attempt by the government to show it is monitoring trends and believe that by issuing a warning they hope to either have people help deter possible attacks through vigilance or perhaps deter terrorists for carrying out a plot because of the increased attention,” Patrick Skinner, Director of Special Projects at The Soufan Group, wrote to ThinkProgress by email. “The warning might be raised after several plots have secretly been disrupted simply out of an abundance of caution or to see the reaction of groups under monitoring.”
Since 9/11, the FBI and DHS have released a number of terror warnings that never materialized into attacks. Experts worry that such warnings risk inspiring a culture of fear among Americans.
“Terrorist groups, and none more so than ISIS, feed on publicity and fear,” said Skinner. “Supporters are more motivated and energized when societies are seen reacting to the perceived menace of the group. Fund raising, recruitment, and overall energy all increase when a society in effect trembles before terrorism. Generic terror warnings are free advertisement for these groups.”
Media’s Role
Skinner said there is a possibility that some plots are foiled without public knowledge. The warnings however are often picked up by the media who decide its significance. Before the holiday weekend, multiple outlets featured the warnings as top stories.
Here’s CNN
Here’s MSNBC
Here’s CBS News interviewing Morrell (quoted above)
“I would point finger at media coverage,” Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told ThinkProgress by phone, adding that the warnings got more attention than they deserved. “It was a slow news cycle. The Bill Cosby deposition broke right after the July holiday, if it had been on Thursday (June 2) it would have been all Bill Cosby.”
“Warnings going out before holiday seasons are not a bad thing,” Gartenstein-Ross said, describing the warnings as standard. “We as a consumer public need to put it in perspective and not let it spook us.”
The regularity of warnings that come to nothing threatens what the Soufan Group described in their July 7 Intel Brief as “Crying Wolf In Terrorism.” Current briefings tend to be vague, with authorities simply asking Americans to “remain vigilant” and “if you see something say something.” But the threat of having an attack come to pass worries security agencies, especially as threats have evolved from large scale attacks conducted by skeletal structured groups (like 9/11) to attacks by small groups or lone wolves.
“The government likewise is in a tough spot with the system that they themselves have devised,” said Skinner. “There is no downside to issuing tons of warnings that never come to pass. Yet there is massive downside to not issuing one and then something happening. It is a systemic ‘cover yourself’ exercise that is difficult to break.”
Skinner said the best solution would be “to cut down on the nonspecific warnings as people can’t do anything with the useless warnings while the terrorist groups get the reaction and fear they crave.”