It’s been shown before: People, particularly Republicans, don’t hate the idea of mass deportation.
In July, a CNN poll found that a majority of Republicans want the government’s immigration strategy to focus on deporting undocumented people. Another poll, conducted in August by IBD/TIPP, found that 59 percent of the general public supports deportation.
But now, a new poll has found that the controversial idea is taking hold among one specific, politically important group of people: Iowa Republican caucusgoers. Released Wednesday by the Des Moines Register, the poll found that nearly half of those caucusgoers want to round up America’s 11 million undocumented immigrants and send them back to their respective countries.
This is particularly interesting given Iowa’s agriculture-based economy, where immigrants are increasingly becoming a significant part of the workforce. As the Sioux City Journal documented last year, the farm work force in Iowa has decreased, and immigrants — many undocumented — have been filling in the gaps. According to one study, more than 33 percent of Iowa’s total economic output came from Iowa agriculture in 2012.
Aside from that, though, the poll is great news for Donald Trump. The Iowa caucuses, now just five months away, are seen as an early indication of who will really have a chance at securing the Republican presidential nomination. And, as it happens, Trump has been making headlines for weeks with his immigration platform, which rests on the idea of widespread deportation.
Many have considered this to be extreme and unrealistic, and even conservatives have scoffed at it. But, evidently, Iowa Republican caucusgoers are not scoffing at all. The Des Moines Register poll found that 73 percent of self-identified Trump supporters within the group of Iowa caucusgoers like the idea of mass deportation. In addition, a good number of Iowa Republicans who support other candidates like the idea as well — 40 percent say rounding up undocumented immigrants is the right approach.
The numbers point to just another reason why Trump is surging in Iowa among likely Republican caucusgoers. The most recent polling for the state, released Monday by Monmouth University, showed Trump tied with neurosurgeon Ben Carson for first place, with 23 percent of the vote. It’s the only poll for a long time that hasn’t shown him alone, by a lot, at the top.
What the Des Moines Register’s poll didn’t mention, however, was the actual estimated cost of widespread deportation. The American Action Forum, a conservative pro-immigration group, has estimated that rounding up and deporting all undocumented residents would cost anywhere from $400 to $600 billion, and reduce economic growth in the country by $1.6 trillion. Trump has said this is wrong, and that the success of deporting immigrants depends solely on “good management.”