Thousands of Iraqi troops have moved to begin the long-anticipated battle to retake Mosul from ISIS on Monday. Should the operation recover Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, it could spell the end of ISIS in Iraq.
“The time of victory has come and operations to liberate Mosul have started,” Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told Iraqi television. “Today I declare the start of these victorious operations to free you from the violence and terrorism of [ISIS].”
On Monday, 4,000 Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga troops retook 10 villages east of Mosul. The commandos lost six soldiers while 16 more were wounded, according to Rudaw, a news outlet that covers Kurdish affairs. The actual operation into the heart of Mosul is likely to be launched by American-trained Iraqi commandos, though an amalgam of allied forces are taking part in uprooting ISIS from the city.
“We are confident our Iraqi partners will prevail against our common enemy and free Mosul and the rest of Iraq from ISIL’s hatred and brutality,” Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter said in a statement Sunday night.
In addition to Kurdish and Iraqi forces, Turkish-backed militias and Iranian backed Shia militias are expected to take part in the offensive. Iraq’s government opposed Turkish involvement but was rebuffed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Shia militias are participating despite American objections.
Mosul is Iraq’s second largest city and strategically placed close to the Syrian and Turkish borders. It is also near oil fields ISIS has used to fund its operations. Winning back Mosul will undercut the group’s economic power and put a halt to their black market oil sales while also limiting the movement of fighters, weapons, and supplies to other strategic locations.
ISIS took control of the city and declared it the center of its caliphate in June 2014. At the time, the population clocked in at around 2.5 million people. Over two years later, however, more than half have died or fled — including numerous minority groups — and Mosul’s population is now believed to be only around one million, according to CNN.
With so many civilians in the area, fighting in the area could get bloody and complicated. It could also draw out the battle for months. Abadi said he expects the Iraqi army to retake the town by the year’s end, but other estimates expect logistics to slow down the process.
“We are expecting up to six months of house-to-house fighting,” an official with the Kurdistan Regional Government told BuzzFeed. “It’s going to be a long, long battle.”
The loss of Mosul would be a cultural blow for ISIS — especially after being ousted from the town of Dabiq in Syria on Sunday — but it would also be a huge logistical blow. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced the formation of a caliphate from the city in 2014, shortly after American-trained Iraqi forces abandoned their weapons and uniforms and fled ISIS, almost handing the city to the multinational group of jihadists.
ISIS seems ready to put up a fight too. A network of tunnels has been erected with many IEDs lacing the road to resemble a minefield.
“ISIS has acted in two specific ways, they have moved some militants from Raqqah to Mosul, and they have, through loudspeakers, called on militants in Mosul to go to frontlines,” Saeed Mamuzini, an official from the Kurdistan Democratic Party, told Rudaw. Mamuzini added that ISIS already executed a number of frontline deserters.
The Iraqi army’s strategy is to first surround the city and win back peripheral villages before sending in the commandos to win back the heart of the city.
“The main assault [of the first phase] is to happen west of the Tigris heading up north toward the mountains overlooking Mosul,” Omar Lamrani, a military specialist at the intelligence firm Stratfor told Buzzfeed. “This will be the main thrust and spearheaded by 25,000 Iraqi military and CTS (Counter-Terrorism Service) and supported by tribal militia. And Peshmerga would attack at the same time. At the end of that we’ll get to the point where Mosul is surrounded on all sides.”
But winning back the city will bring challenges of its own. An exodus of Iraqis could flee to neighboring Syria or Turkey, the UN refugee agency warned on Monday.
“UNHCR is concerned that events in Mosul may cause up to 100,000 Iraqis to flee towards Syria and Turkey,” the agency said. “Preparedness plans are underway in Syria to receive up to 90,000 Iraqi refugees.”
Baghdad would also have to hold and rule Mosul while rebuilding infrastructure. The Iraqi government has struggled to improve the lives of citizens in Tikrit and Ramadi, two other cities where Iraqi troops have ousted ISIS, but American investment could make life easier in Mosul, CNN reported. Meanwhile, the Iraqi government warned civilians to stay in their homes.
“I do believe that at this point that [Mosul residents] are so desperate they just want anyone to liberate them,” Rasha Al Aqeedi, an analyst at the Al Mesbar Studies and Research Center in Dubai and a native of Mosul told Buzzfeed. “They just don’t want the city to be completely ruined, and they want to survive it.”