Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sent the world mixed messages as he spoke to reporters at the United Nations on Thursday. While Russia announced Wednesday it had waded into the Syrian war to help counter ISIS, its involvement may do just the opposite.
[Russian airstrikes] “do not go beyond ISIL [ISIS], [Jabhat] al-Nusra or other terrorist groups recognized by the United Nations Security Council or Russian law,” Lavrov said. “If it looks like a terrorist, if it acts like a terrorist, if it walks like a terrorist, if it fights like a terrorist, it’s a terrorist, right?” Lavrov added that Russia did not consider the opposition Free Syrian Army to be a terrorist group.
Syria’s now in its fifth year of civil war and over 250,000 people are estimated to have been killed, with a further 11 million displaced. There are around 4 million refugees, mostly residing in Syria’s neighboring countries, but as food aid dissipates many refugees are expected to join the tens of thousands already attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from Turkey into Europe. More than 2,800 people have already died on such a voyage and many more are expected to attempt it this winter.
Russian airstrikes started Wednesday near the cities of Homs and Hama in what Russia’s Defense Ministry said were attacks against ISIS, also known as ISIL or the Islamic State. Opposition activists and Syrian Civil Defense units, a group of volunteers who perform duties similar to the Red Cross, however, said that ISIS was nowhere near the targeted areas — a claim buttressed by maps that layout which actors are in control of the various parts of Syria.
Rhetoric aside, Russia has been transparent about using Syrian Army intelligence to conduct airstrikes. “All the airstrikes of the Russian aviation are coordinated with the Command of the Syrian Army,” a video post, showing the airstrikes on the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Defense Facebook page, said on Thursday.
Ночью российская авиация нанесла удары по 4 объектам «Исламского государства» на территории Сирии. Совершено 8 самолетовылетов Су-24М и Су-25. Уничтожены штаб террористических формирований и склад боеприпасов в районе ИДЛИБ, а также трехуровневый укрепленный командный пункт боевиков в районе н.п. ХАМА. В результате прямого попадания авиабомбы полностью уничтожен завод по подготовке машин к взрыву севернее города ХОМС.Все удары российской авиации согласовываются с руководством сирийской армии, для чего на авиабазе «Хмеймим» развернута оперативная группа Минобороны Сирийской Арабской Республики.Чтобы исключить поражение мирного населения, объекты для ударов российской авиации назначаются строго вне населенных пунктов и только на основе подтвержденных разведывательных данных, поступающих из различных источников.Для получения достоверной информации о местоположении террористов и результатах огневого поражения активно задействуются средства космической разведки и беспилотные летательные аппараты.#Сирия #ИГИЛ #МинобороныРоссии #ВКС #ISISRussian Aerospace Forces engaged another four ISIS facilities this night.Su-24M and Su-25 aircraft performed 8 sorties eliminating the staff of terrorist groupings and an ammunition depot near Idlib as well as a three-level HQ centre near Hamah.As a result of a pinpoint bomb attack, a plant aimed for preparation of cars for terrorist attacks located in the north of Homs is completely destroyed.All the airstrikes of the Russian aviation are coordinated with the Command of the Syrian Army. An operational group of the Ministry of Defence of the Syrian Arab Republic is deployed at the Hmeymim airbase for these purposes.To prevent engagement of civil population, the targets for the Russian aviation are assigned only outside inhabited areas and only on the basis of confirmed reconnaissance data received from multiple sources.To provide necessary information concerning the positions of terrorists and the results of their engagement, unmanned aerial vehicles and means of space reconnaissance are used.
Posted by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on Thursday, October 1, 2015
Instead, it seems the airstrikes hit rebel groups. Some of these groups are backed by the U.S. and its allies in the Gulf States. The move looks like it could go as far as to embolden ISIS, a strategy that some analysts have argued is part of the Assad regime’s plan to paint itself as fighting a war against Islamic radicals.
“Russian troops are backing Assad in the fight against groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, which are themselves opposed to ISIS,” Igor Sutyagin, a Russian strategic analyst, told the Guardian last week. “If Russian troops do eventually join combat, therefore, they would also — technically — be assisting ISIS.”
This is a notion supported also by Syrian rebel groups and various civilians who are sympathetic to the rebel cause of dislodging Assad’s brutal regime.
“Western-backed Syrian opposition chief Khaled Khoja said the Russian strikes had killed 36 civilians and no rebel fighters, and accused Russia of seeking only to keep Assad in power,” Reuters reported on Thursday.
“I am living in an area under the regime’s control,” Latakia resident and Syrian opposition supporter Abu Mohammed, 27, told the Guardian. “And I can tell you they are very happy about what is happening. They feel proud of all of the bombing and the killing [of] the civilians. The regime hates us more than [ISIS]. They consider us the real enemy.”
In the short run, the airstrikes will give a boost to the Assad regime, but they are also likely to be beneficial to ISIS. With their opponents in the various opposition groups depleted by airstrikes, ISIS is also likely to benefit. And while Assad may see this as a way to increase support for his fight for survival, it could also be detrimental for any future political solution in Syria.
“Russia’s actions are likely to stir up a hornet’s nest,” Brian Katulis, a senior fellow with a focus on National Security and the Middle East at the Center for American Progress told ThinkProgress, “and what Russia is doing in Syria may end up creating the greatest rallying cry and recruitment tool for terrorist networks across the region since the Bush administration took America to war in Iraq in 2003.”