The Obama administration is considering sending defensive weapons to Ukrainian forces trying to halt the advance of separatists who have reclaimed 200 square miles of land since both sides signed a ceasefire agreement in September. With no sign of the conflict abating and Washington’s economic sanctions failing to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from supplying hard weapons and military assistance to pro-Russian fighters, a growing number of foreign policy experts and lawmakers in Congress are pressing for military action.
Earlier this week, more than 30 Democrats and Republicans and a group of former top diplomatic and military leaders urged the president to supply the Ukrainian government with antitank missiles, reconnaissance drones and other arms. They argue that arming the Ukrainians would “make further aggression so costly that Putin and the Russian army are deterred from escalating the fight.”
But America’s European allies, including Germany, Great Britain, and Italy, oppose that plan. Below are their biggest concerns about arming the Ukrainian government:
1. Weapons won’t tip the balance in the ongoing conflict. Regional experts like the Brookings Institution’s Jeremy Shapiro warn that Russia’s military “is far stronger than the Ukrainian military” and would be able to overcome the American-sent armaments. As the foreign policy experts admit in their report, “[e]ven with enormous support from the West, the Ukrainian army will not be able to defeat a determined attack by the Russian military.”
2. Weapons could fall into the wrong hands. Though the administration is only considering supplying defensive weapons, the armaments could be used in an offensive manner or fall into the wrong hands, contributing to the conflict’s ever-growing number of casualties. On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials arrested a senior officer accused of spying for Russia. Lt. Col. Mykhailo Chornobai “had been at the center of an espionage ring in the capital and had passed military secrets directly to an agent of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic, including the locations of volunteer regiments that were then used to pinpoint artillery attacks,” the New York Times notes. The arrest reiterated concerns that Ukrainian forces cannot be trusted with American weapons.
3. Weapons would only strengthen Putin’s hand. Putin has characterized the conflict in Ukraine as a larger struggle against an imperialist America. “American provision of arms would lend credence to that view and increase the Russian government’s freedom of action at home,” Shapiro notes. American arms could therefore play into Putin’s hands by reinforcing Russia’s propaganda war and build public support for escalating the conflict.
4. Weapons could trigger Putin’s unpredictability. Putin may react to the supply of armaments by expanding Russia’s military support to the rebels. Alternatively, the Russian president, who sees the conflict as a direct threat to his personal power and credibility, could launch cyberattacks or undermine American and European interests through other means.
5. Weapons could further deteriorate America’s relationship with Russia. The Obama administration sought to “reset” its relations with Russia in 2009. But clashes over Syria’s civil war, America’s criticism of Russia’s human rights record, its close ties to Iran, and Putin’s decision to grand asylum to Edward Snowden, have contributed to a rift between the two nations. Still, the United States and Russia share a mutual diplomatic agenda — including the ongoing negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear program — that could suffer if the Obama administration sent weapons to Ukraine.
In a news conference on Thursday, Secretary of State John Kerry, who is visiting the Ukrainian capitol of Kiev, called on Moscow to “support and honor the commitment they made to implement a cease-fire, to pull back heavy weapons and troops.” He reportedly told the Ukrainians that the Obama administration would “make a decision soon about supplying weapons, perhaps even by next week,” the New York Times reports.
More than 4,800 people have been killed and 1.2 million displaced by the conflict since April.