Sultan used to be a civil servant in Syria but after months of witnessing crimes by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, he chose to defect to the Free Syrian Army. Since then, his hope of a new Syria has diminished. Battle wounds have forced him to watch from the sidelines of Jordan as his homeland is being ripped to shreds by warring factions — among them a malevolent regime and brutal religious fundamentalists.
The Iranian nuclear deal struck on Tuesday was greeted internationally with much acclaim. Western powers hope that this will keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons while disseminating hostilities between the two parties and empowering more moderate forces inside Iran. But while the deal has been seen by many around the world as a success, an unfortunate side effect is that it may also benefit the man many Syrians see as a brutal dictator.
“In the name of the Syrian people, I congratulate you and the people of Iran on this historic achievement,” Assad said in a statement addressed to Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. “We are confident Iran will continue, and with greater momentum, to support the peoples’ just issues and to work towards establishing peace and stability in the region and the world.”
As things stand in Syria, people are enduring tremendous suffering. More than 200,000 people have been killed to date and half of all Syrians have had to leave their homes, making it the world’s largest displacement crisis. Experts agree that the Syrian president looks set to benefit from the Iranian nuclear deal. And for Syrians like Sultan, the deal is just another blow to his fading vision of Syria free of Assad’s murderous rule.
“Before the deal, Iran was able to be a part of the destruction of Syria and Iraq so imagine now,” Sultan told ThinkProgress from Jordan. “[The deal] may help the Syrian regime but not the people.”
Since the start of the Syrian uprising in 2011, Iran has unabashedly backed Assad by providing military supplies. They’ve also sent elite fighting forces — the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces and their Lebanese proxy-Hezbollah — to aid Assad’s cause. Iran is expected to receive a windfall of $100 billion in frozen assets once international sanctions are lifted and there is a widely held notion that at least a portion of that will be reinvested in the Syrian arena.
“For several years, Syria has been the most visible theater of a bloody proxy war between two loose blocs led by Riyadh [Saudi Arabia] and Tehran [Iran],” Hassan Hassan, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Fellow at Chatham House writes in Foreign Policy on Wednesday. “Regardless of what path the region’s rivals take next — diplomacy or an even bloodier war — Syria will be at the heart of it.”
Many experts believe the Iranian nuclear deal will have a significant — and largely negative — impact on Syria.
Hassan writes in his piece that Saudi Arabia and Iran will potentially intensify the battle in Syria by funneling more money into the country. “[E]ach side will likely increase support for their respective proxies in Syria and elsewhere. Both sides have constituencies that expect them to do more, as Assad not too subtly indicated.”
Experts’ opinions on the deal however are not unanimous. Western powers hope the deal will bring Iran closer to the rest of the world — empowering the liberals and moderates while improving relations with neighboring countries and the west. Iran’s regional competitors (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Israel) are skeptical of Iranian influence. This has led some experts to believe that that a ‘wait and see’ approach is most practical.
“It could strengthen key portions of the regime…but Syria is excessively costly for Iran,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. “It’s really hard to speculate.”
Katulis said it is important to watch the reactions of the regional powers, particularly Turkey and the Gulf countries. Fearful over the thawing of American and Iranian hostilities, the regional powers are expected to increase their cooperation on issues like Syria. The combined financial muscle of the Gulf States and Turkey, should they decide to have it exercised, could have massive repercussions for Syria.
“Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey can outspend Iran with or without sanctions in Syria,” Joshua Landis, Director at the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and founder of the Syria Comment blog, told ThinkProgress by phone. ”Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are infinitely richer and have more cash reserves than Iran. If there’s a bidding war over Syria, they can clearly outspend Iran.”
Landis believes that the only thing that has kept Assad’s opponents in the Gulf from pushing harder for Assad’s fall is the fear that radical Islamist groups will fill the regime-shaped void. For now, Landis predicted, any increase on either side will be met with balance.
“I don’t suspect [the nuclear deal] will have a whole world of difference,” he said. “I’m sure the Assad regime is hoping Iran will feel stronger because of this deal and will support Syria more vigorously with money, men, and arms.”
Nonetheless, Assad still walks out a winner in Landis’ eyes. “It’s good for Assad. He’s trying to present himself as the best alternative to what he believes is a very bad opposition and to ISIS and Islamists in general.” Assad has gained some success on this front, as the Obama administration has been accused of sidestepping questions about the regime and instead choosing to focus on ISIS.
While the reactions and repercussions of the Iranian deal still hang in the air, there still seems to be no solution in sight for the crisis in Syria. Assad may prove to be one of the winners. And as regional powers double down the Syrian people will continue losing.
“In the coming weeks and months, each side will probably attempt to prove they are a regional power to be reckoned with,” Hassan writes. “And so, whatever happens next, the situation in Syria will get worse before it gets better — if at all.”