The changing face of the typical American voter stands to make a transformative impact on future U.S. politics as the electorate shifts to “majority-minority.” A new report from the Center for American Progress, the American Enterprise Institute, and the Brookings Institution predicts the makeup of states over the next 45 years — and what that means for the democratic process.
The report, entitled States of Change: The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate, 1974–2060, examined population data to pinpoint the “tipping year” for states where the current minority population will become the majority. The U.S. as a whole is expected to reach that tipping point in 2052. Many states already have Caucasian minorities, including California, Texas, and Arizona.
Here are a few predictions from the new research:
The children of the future are super-diverse. Future generations will be dramatically more diverse, and already, younger age groups are diversifying at a faster pace than older groups. “Mostly white Baby Boomers are now becoming seniors, and the now-smaller ranks of white children and young adults have been replaced by Hispanics, Asians, and other racial minorities from later generations,” the report notes. By 2040, 57 percent of American children will be minorities. In 2060, children are projected to be 65 percent minority. Some states have already reached this point; 60 percent of children living in Arizona, as well as 70 percent of Californian children, are already minorities.
More unmarried voters. Family structures have become more diverse since the 1970s, when 70 percent of eligible voters were married. As more Americans have begun delaying or eschewing marriage altogether, the number of unmarried voters has grown to nearly match the number of married voters. “In the short term, we can expect unmarried EVs to increase around 1.5 percentage points over a four-year presidential cycle,” the report notes.
White voters will become a minority. White Americans’ share of the electorate has dwindled since 1980, when 85 percent of eligible voters were white. By 2060, the report expects whites will make up 46 percent of eligible voters — down 24 points from today. Meanwhile, Latino and Asian Americans will make huge gains; according to predictions, Latinos will gain 15 points and Asians will grow by 8 points. Black voters’ share will stay relatively stable.
The report generally aligns with previous findings that minority voting power is growing rapidly. By the 2016 election, it’s estimated that minority voters will make up about a third of the electorate.
Republicans, who have steadily lost non-white voters over the past few election cycles, have begun sounding the alarm. The Republican National Committee and wealthy conservative donors like the Koch brothers have stressed the need to reach out to minorities, though the party has been reluctant to actually change the policies that alienate these voters. Instead, lawmakers all over the country have launched efforts to keep newly influential communities from voting, through gerrymandering, voter ID laws, voter purges, and proof-of-citizenship requirements — all of which have been shown to disproportionately impact voters of color. Research shows that states with more minority turnout are more likely to pass voter suppression laws.